After we highlighted the base case for a reversal of the recent bear market rally, we now seem to be in the middle of a correction with bitcoin falling below the 50-DMA and the long-term holder realized price. Realized price is now falling relative to the last 30 days after weeks of being stagnant. Futures annualized rolling basis is starting to turn over as well. The next key price levels all sit around $20,000 and slightly below. Many of the bullish signals in today’s dashboard snapshot are reflective of long-term indicators for on-chain accumulation. These can exist at extremes for prolonged periods of time. There are some minor increasing data flips in Global M2 Money Supply YoY, DXY YoY and U.S. ISM PMI, but these are negligible relative to the broader trend. Both Central Bank Assets YoY and U.S. Net Liquidity YoY continue contracting at a rapid pace. Fund flows were increasingly negative relative to the week prior. Short-term interest rates broke new highs yet again this week with the 2-year Treasury reaching over 5%. As regulatory pressures mount along with Silvergate Bank beginning the process of liquidation, a likely case is that we see more downside for the bitcoin price in the short-term. The only positive sign from this week was the repricing of GBTC due to redemption expectations with the discount rising to 36%.
Note: We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.
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Note: The code will only work with the same email that is connected to your Substack subscription and is not valid for free trials. If you have any issues with the code, please email craig.deutsch@btcmedia.org
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PRO Market & Mining Dashboards 3/9/2023
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Market Dashboard
Market Summary
After we highlighted the base case for a reversal of the recent bear market rally, we now seem to be in the middle of a correction with bitcoin falling below the 50-DMA and the long-term holder realized price. Realized price is now falling relative to the last 30 days after weeks of being stagnant. Futures annualized rolling basis is starting to turn over as well. The next key price levels all sit around $20,000 and slightly below. Many of the bullish signals in today’s dashboard snapshot are reflective of long-term indicators for on-chain accumulation. These can exist at extremes for prolonged periods of time. There are some minor increasing data flips in Global M2 Money Supply YoY, DXY YoY and U.S. ISM PMI, but these are negligible relative to the broader trend. Both Central Bank Assets YoY and U.S. Net Liquidity YoY continue contracting at a rapid pace. Fund flows were increasingly negative relative to the week prior. Short-term interest rates broke new highs yet again this week with the 2-year Treasury reaching over 5%. As regulatory pressures mount along with Silvergate Bank beginning the process of liquidation, a likely case is that we see more downside for the bitcoin price in the short-term. The only positive sign from this week was the repricing of GBTC due to redemption expectations with the discount rising to 36%.
Related:
Grayscale’s SEC Hearing Gives New Hope For GBTC Investors
Banking Troubles Brewing In Crypto-Land
Mining Dashboard
PDF Versions
For LIVE access to the Dashboards, visit:
Market Dashboard: https://charts.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/
Mining Dashboard: https://charts.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/mining
Password: rS2R5#M*^ime
Note: We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.
Note: The code will only work with the same email that is connected to your Substack subscription and is not valid for free trials. If you have any issues with the code, please email craig.deutsch@btcmedia.org