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Market Summary
Relative to last week, the data is showing a few more “Bullish” signals with rises in Global M2 YoY, U.S. ISM PMI and the GBTC Discount/Premium. However, these are relatively minor improvements to the trend and data compared to the last 30 days with Global M2 annual growth still negative and PMI contracting (below 50). The GBTC discount is still below 45%, slightly up over the last month. We would want to see a continued improvement in these metrics over the next few weeks. Both U.S. Net Liquidity and Central Bank balance sheets continue to contract significantly relative to the last 30 days. Bitcoin price continues to chop short-term between $20,000 and $25,000 with the recent rejection of the 200-WMA. Likely the next breakout of either level is a larger market expansion move. After a few months of rising hash price — a boon to miners — the trend is starting to turn over again. Short-term interest rates are driving the show with 6-month and 2-year interest rates reaching decade highs and making major moves over the last couple of weeks.
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1) have you considered weighting the total bull/bear counts? BTC Mag often makes the point that global liquidity is a key driver for price action, and is arguably more important than long term hodl profits for example. Would a weighted total not give a more useful snapshot of the bull/bear position than simply counting the number of flags? 2) Any chance you could add some foot notes to explain the relevance of each metric? Thanks in advance.
Thanks for the comment Chris. It definitely would. Weighting is something I've been working on for future iterations. Even a split between cyclical allocation indicators and short-term momentum indicators would help with this too. Example, many of the on-chain indicators are useful for showing cyclical extremes but don't help indicate short-term moves. They could be showing "bullish" signal even if we're seeing a rally turnover as they are a more multi year view. Similar with no difference in defining leading/lagging indicators. For now, we try to highlight the more important indicators each week in the Market Summary.
A couple of points that might be helpful:
1) have you considered weighting the total bull/bear counts? BTC Mag often makes the point that global liquidity is a key driver for price action, and is arguably more important than long term hodl profits for example. Would a weighted total not give a more useful snapshot of the bull/bear position than simply counting the number of flags? 2) Any chance you could add some foot notes to explain the relevance of each metric? Thanks in advance.
Thanks for the comment Chris. It definitely would. Weighting is something I've been working on for future iterations. Even a split between cyclical allocation indicators and short-term momentum indicators would help with this too. Example, many of the on-chain indicators are useful for showing cyclical extremes but don't help indicate short-term moves. They could be showing "bullish" signal even if we're seeing a rally turnover as they are a more multi year view. Similar with no difference in defining leading/lagging indicators. For now, we try to highlight the more important indicators each week in the Market Summary.
We have a list here of the indicators:
https://bmpro.substack.com/p/pro-market-dashboard-release
Let me know if you're looking for more than that and we will add it in.