You provided your reasons for why you don’t think liquidity is the driver, but you did not provide the reasons for why the halving is - in your opinion - the driver. Can’t be supply driven as the new emissions are now so low that even when 100% are sold per day they have insignificant impact on price at 900 new bitcoin per day today and soon to be only 450 per day after the halving. The halving by itself does not drive price or necessarily even purchase/sale behavior. In your opinion is the belief that a pattern will be repeated that in itself via confirmation bias drives behavior? While there is correlation, I still do not think there is sufficient causation. So let’s see how this cycle plays out and maybe we will both get some deeper insights in =to what drives the price of bitcoin :-)
How does a halving create scarcity? There are already 19.5 million bitcoin in circulation, and emissions will continue until we reach 21 million. The halving does not create more scarcity, it simply decreases (minimally) new supply issuance, which going from 900 bitcoin per day to 450 bitcoin per day has little if any impact on actual liquid supply. The risk with FOMO is that reality sets in and most bitcoin investors have now been through a few of these cycles. I think we have transitioned to an institutional cycle, which will be very different than prior cycles and likely break the halving to bitcoin price cycle correlation for ever.
You provided your reasons for why you don’t think liquidity is the driver, but you did not provide the reasons for why the halving is - in your opinion - the driver. Can’t be supply driven as the new emissions are now so low that even when 100% are sold per day they have insignificant impact on price at 900 new bitcoin per day today and soon to be only 450 per day after the halving. The halving by itself does not drive price or necessarily even purchase/sale behavior. In your opinion is the belief that a pattern will be repeated that in itself via confirmation bias drives behavior? While there is correlation, I still do not think there is sufficient causation. So let’s see how this cycle plays out and maybe we will both get some deeper insights in =to what drives the price of bitcoin :-)
Halvings create scarcity, scarcity creates FOMO, and FOMO drives behavior.
How does a halving create scarcity? There are already 19.5 million bitcoin in circulation, and emissions will continue until we reach 21 million. The halving does not create more scarcity, it simply decreases (minimally) new supply issuance, which going from 900 bitcoin per day to 450 bitcoin per day has little if any impact on actual liquid supply. The risk with FOMO is that reality sets in and most bitcoin investors have now been through a few of these cycles. I think we have transitioned to an institutional cycle, which will be very different than prior cycles and likely break the halving to bitcoin price cycle correlation for ever.
Agree.