Market Summary Relative to last week, the data is showing three more “Bearish” signs across the 30-day change in hash price, the options 25 delta skew 1-month and the change in GBTC discount/premium. So far, price has rejected off the 200-WMA level of $25,000, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, equities volatility has risen relative to the last 30 days and the measure of U.S. net liquidity contracted further this week. Fund flows are trending down with another outflow week of $24.8 million. The S&P500 Index has fallen below the 4,000 level, while bitcoin and risk correlations are trending upward again. Economic data came in hot again today with Core PCE rising above expectations, another justification for the “higher for longer” view. In aggregate, central bank balance sheets are turning over at a faster rate this week, now down 12.50% year-over-year in dollar terms. No significant change in realized price, which continues to sit around $19,900. $20,000 is a major trend and support area. Long-term holder realized price sits at $22,200. This week, we also saw a small flush out in leveraged-long speculation but open interest still remains fairly elevated with a neutral-to-bullish perps funding rate.
Dashboard Note Based on subscriber feedback, we’re currently working to get a live view of the dashboard up and running for readers to access at anytime. We also plan to roll out additional dashboards for on-chain, mining, derivatives and macro data in the near future, so stay tuned!
Very much looking forward to a mining dashboard since, to my knowledge, this would be the first of its kind. I have some ideas re: how to create metrics around mining companies if you'd like to hear more.
I've been trying to eyeball this due to a lack of analytics tools at my disposal, but creating a formula to value mining stocks where it looks at some combination of the following:
# of BTC held on balance sheets + hash rate (or expected hash rate growth) / market cap (in $) of company.
In a BTC bull market AKA post-halving, I believe the best mining stocks will be ones with BTC on balance sheet (the stock will be reflexive to BTC going up) + forward looking hash rate estimates (as future mining capacity of bitcoin is viewed as a positive when hash price increases). Comparing that to market cap can illustrate if the company is over/under valued.
This metric would then flip negative in bear markets (since BTC on the balance sheet as it's going down in value would be bearish for the stock).
Still working on potential weightings and how to display the value but figured I would share in case you had any ideas.
Like the idea. Could try looking at both current hash rate and expected/announced hash rate. One way could be to imply a USD/BTC value from the EH/s hash rate or fleet size based on some average market ASIC price or index. Then add that back to the btc holdings in BTC or USD.
Excellent news! Live view of the dashboard! And additional dashboards! Right on target!
Dashboard looks great so far!
Very much looking forward to a mining dashboard since, to my knowledge, this would be the first of its kind. I have some ideas re: how to create metrics around mining companies if you'd like to hear more.
Hey SM, what do you have in mind for metrics? Would love to hear your thoughts.
I've been trying to eyeball this due to a lack of analytics tools at my disposal, but creating a formula to value mining stocks where it looks at some combination of the following:
# of BTC held on balance sheets + hash rate (or expected hash rate growth) / market cap (in $) of company.
In a BTC bull market AKA post-halving, I believe the best mining stocks will be ones with BTC on balance sheet (the stock will be reflexive to BTC going up) + forward looking hash rate estimates (as future mining capacity of bitcoin is viewed as a positive when hash price increases). Comparing that to market cap can illustrate if the company is over/under valued.
This metric would then flip negative in bear markets (since BTC on the balance sheet as it's going down in value would be bearish for the stock).
Still working on potential weightings and how to display the value but figured I would share in case you had any ideas.
Like the idea. Could try looking at both current hash rate and expected/announced hash rate. One way could be to imply a USD/BTC value from the EH/s hash rate or fleet size based on some average market ASIC price or index. Then add that back to the btc holdings in BTC or USD.
Great idea, so...
($ value of BTC on balance sheet) + ($ value of hash rate [via ASIC price])
/ $ market cap of company
IMO, would be awesome to see and would love to help contribute. I'll mock this up and DM you on twitter.