Market Summary There’s little change to last week’s bearish signal increase as bitcoin price faces another critical level at the 200WMA again right around $25,000. With rising U.S. dollar strength, a window for a reversal in compressed equities volatility and no new significant expansion in the liquidity measures we’re tracking, we’re still cautious on a bear market rally and reversal here. Taking the other side, a significant breakout above $25,200 likely takes bitcoin up to $30,000 next.
Over the last week, there’s been significant change in rate expectations in 2023H2 and caution around a resurgence in inflation which confirm the “higher for longer” view. After a couple weeks of strong bitcoin fund inflows into the rally (over $160M), we saw slight fund outflows this week of $10.8M.
Thursday of this week was the highest perpetual funding rate we’ve seen in since the November 2021 top at a 18.6% annualized rate alongside rising open interest in USD terms. Potentially another sign that long speculators are getting overextended here. GBTC discount has seen some improvement over the last week but remains below 40%. Correlations to risk remain weaker on shorter time frames relative to long-term trend.
Do you think bitcoin breaks above $25,200 or hits resistance and makes a reversal?
I don't want to jinx things with this positive upside run but I'll say this:
if bitcoin stays in and around $25k for the next 6 months to a year I'll be happy because I can DCA at a reasonable price for for a reasonable amount of time. IMHO, BTC is something to own, not trade.
To be honest (which I always try to be unless it's telling my wife that dress doesn't make her look fat), I'm a BTC hoddler so I don't care where it goes in the short term (2-5 years) I just DCA it as I do the other top coins I believe are going parabolic over that time period. There is too much turmoil in the market presently to gamble on the short term. Day trading in cryptocurrency is IMO a fools errand. I don't look on cryptocurrency from a traditional investment standpoint. My paradigm is one of economic ecosystems that are in competition with one another. Some make economic sense and others don't. And, since I have a "day" job, I don't have the time availability to do much research that isn't a long arduous exercise in whatever "asset" I am acquiring. Investment is a blood sport and I'm very conservative because I value my blood.
All I can say is that since Nov. of 2022, I'm on a positive trend. Before that, you'd have to be an idiot to lose money. For those that are going into debt to "gamble" on gains in crypto or don't have an off chain account (cold wallet). WTF are you thinking?
I don't want to jinx things with this positive upside run but I'll say this:
if bitcoin stays in and around $25k for the next 6 months to a year I'll be happy because I can DCA at a reasonable price for for a reasonable amount of time. IMHO, BTC is something to own, not trade.
Thank you for the dashboard report Sam & Dylan.
How do we get access to a higher resolution version of the dashboard?
To be honest (which I always try to be unless it's telling my wife that dress doesn't make her look fat), I'm a BTC hoddler so I don't care where it goes in the short term (2-5 years) I just DCA it as I do the other top coins I believe are going parabolic over that time period. There is too much turmoil in the market presently to gamble on the short term. Day trading in cryptocurrency is IMO a fools errand. I don't look on cryptocurrency from a traditional investment standpoint. My paradigm is one of economic ecosystems that are in competition with one another. Some make economic sense and others don't. And, since I have a "day" job, I don't have the time availability to do much research that isn't a long arduous exercise in whatever "asset" I am acquiring. Investment is a blood sport and I'm very conservative because I value my blood.
All I can say is that since Nov. of 2022, I'm on a positive trend. Before that, you'd have to be an idiot to lose money. For those that are going into debt to "gamble" on gains in crypto or don't have an off chain account (cold wallet). WTF are you thinking?
I'm just sayin..
Thanks!
Is there a way to access the dashboard itself or we just get a screenshot? It’s very difficult to read...
If you click on the image, it will show the full-size version. You can also download it and zoom in more.
Not in a hurry for a sustained break above 200wma, as stacking at these levels is amazing, but solid points in your post and graphs