Market Summary After a major breakout from the 200-WMA around $25,000, bitcoin quickly ran up to its first key major resistance level of $29,000 just after the FOMC meeting. After an 85%-plus run from the lows in November 2022, this is another prime area to watch for a potential larger price correction. A retest of the 200-WMA at $25,400 is in play and will be telling to determine if we’re headed back to the previous range. Signals have been bullish for price momentum, on-chain accumulation and many macro indicators. Although nothing like the bull market QE measures we’ve seen in the past, central bank balance sheets and U.S. net liquidity are slightly up on new temporary funding policies. Fund flows recorded their sixth straight week of net outflows despite the ongoing rally — which is an odd sign. Equities volatility has come down along with the U.S. dollar and 2-year yields over the last week. Bitcoin correlations with equities have significantly weakened while the GBTC discount is back to 39%. A small amount of positive inflows has pushed bitcoin realized price to $19,922. Overall, we’re cautious here at a local top area and a rejection below 4,000 for the S&P 500.
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hey guys, thanks for the update. I just wanted to ask in relation to the derivatives market.
How do you evaluate the 25 delta skew for 1-month options being in the negative territory and being a bearish sign? I understand that if this indicator is negative, then traders are buying more calls than puts. Traders may be interested in calls if they are optimistic about the price action, as the call gives them the right to buy the underlying asset in the future.
Do you have a certain negative threshold from which you consider it a bullish sign? I just saw the chart, and I understand that. So I guess we are just getting "less bearish" but this still is a bearish indicator? Do you have a neutral threshold for this indicator, or just flip between bull/bear directly?
hey guys, thanks for the update. I just wanted to ask in relation to the derivatives market.
How do you evaluate the 25 delta skew for 1-month options being in the negative territory and being a bearish sign? I understand that if this indicator is negative, then traders are buying more calls than puts. Traders may be interested in calls if they are optimistic about the price action, as the call gives them the right to buy the underlying asset in the future.
Do you have a certain negative threshold from which you consider it a bullish sign? I just saw the chart, and I understand that. So I guess we are just getting "less bearish" but this still is a bearish indicator? Do you have a neutral threshold for this indicator, or just flip between bull/bear directly?