The market is presently balanced on a knife’s edge. Bitcoin-native on-chain metrics maintain a promising long-term outlook, with committed holders continuing their accumulation. Macro traders still significantly impact the price at the margin, and with exchange volumes way down from bull market levels, illiquidity reigns supreme. In the legacy system, divergences are apparent in the equities and bonds markets. Bonds have faded the equity market’s strength in recent weeks. This is most notable in the tech sector, where a few giants prop up the NASDAQ, leaving small caps to languish. This dynamic is best demonstrated by Nvidia, which gained $200 billion in market cap in the overnight session after a surprise revenue beat, sending shares past all-time highs, fueled by the AI frenzy. To put this insanity into perspective, Nvidia’s revenue figures actually declined year over year, but the decline was less than analyst expectations. While valuation disconnects can persist for quite some time, Nvidia is the poster-child for the current tech hype cycle that has decoupled from economic reality.
Looking across the pond, China’s stunted economic recovery, coupled with its resistance to large-scale stimulus, has a global ripple effect. These conditions dampen equity markets and suppress commodity prices. The lost momentum of the CSI 300 Index and China’s economic stagnation have necessitated a readjustment of investor expectations, suggesting a losing battle against a weakened industrial activity and a stalled recovery. In a corresponding blow, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, fell into an unexpected recession. This setback triggers concern over the broader implications for the eurozone. The faltering consumer sentiment and industrial sector downturn play substantial roles in Germany’s economic downturn with a drop in purchasing power, industrial stagnation and a projected slowdown of the U.S. economy casting a shadow over the economic outlook.
A prudent eye on macroeconomic developments, such as the resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling and potential large-scale debt issuance by the Treasury will be vital in the coming months. These circumstances, alongside the anticipated rollover of employment data and consumer spending in the second half of 2023, underline the need for ongoing vigilance and careful strategy in this unstable market landscape. We expect choppy conditions for bitcoin throughout the rest of 2023, barring any changes, before the macro tides hopefully shift to a more supportive form in 2024.
We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.
Don’t forget! Paying subscribers get 15% off in the Bitcoin Magazine store. Login to the Bitcoin Magazine store with your BM PRO Paid Subscriber email and use code BM-PRO for 15% off ALL items. Includes conference tickets, magazines, art and more!
Note: The code will only work with the same email that is connected to your Substack subscription and is not valid for free trials. If you have any issues with the code, please email craig.deutsch@btcmedia.org
Share this post
PRO Market & Mining Dashboards: 5/25/2023
Share this post
Market Dashboard
Market Summary
The market is presently balanced on a knife’s edge. Bitcoin-native on-chain metrics maintain a promising long-term outlook, with committed holders continuing their accumulation. Macro traders still significantly impact the price at the margin, and with exchange volumes way down from bull market levels, illiquidity reigns supreme. In the legacy system, divergences are apparent in the equities and bonds markets. Bonds have faded the equity market’s strength in recent weeks. This is most notable in the tech sector, where a few giants prop up the NASDAQ, leaving small caps to languish. This dynamic is best demonstrated by Nvidia, which gained $200 billion in market cap in the overnight session after a surprise revenue beat, sending shares past all-time highs, fueled by the AI frenzy. To put this insanity into perspective, Nvidia’s revenue figures actually declined year over year, but the decline was less than analyst expectations. While valuation disconnects can persist for quite some time, Nvidia is the poster-child for the current tech hype cycle that has decoupled from economic reality.
Looking across the pond, China’s stunted economic recovery, coupled with its resistance to large-scale stimulus, has a global ripple effect. These conditions dampen equity markets and suppress commodity prices. The lost momentum of the CSI 300 Index and China’s economic stagnation have necessitated a readjustment of investor expectations, suggesting a losing battle against a weakened industrial activity and a stalled recovery. In a corresponding blow, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, fell into an unexpected recession. This setback triggers concern over the broader implications for the eurozone. The faltering consumer sentiment and industrial sector downturn play substantial roles in Germany’s economic downturn with a drop in purchasing power, industrial stagnation and a projected slowdown of the U.S. economy casting a shadow over the economic outlook.
A prudent eye on macroeconomic developments, such as the resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling and potential large-scale debt issuance by the Treasury will be vital in the coming months. These circumstances, alongside the anticipated rollover of employment data and consumer spending in the second half of 2023, underline the need for ongoing vigilance and careful strategy in this unstable market landscape. We expect choppy conditions for bitcoin throughout the rest of 2023, barring any changes, before the macro tides hopefully shift to a more supportive form in 2024.
Mining Dashboard
PDF Versions
For LIVE access to the Dashboards, visit:
Market Dashboard
Mining Dashboard
Password: T!f8#9zt39GtQ4&V@%
We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.