Relative to last week, there’s been an increase in bearish signals based on price action. In previous market summaries, we highlighted the local $30K price area as a potential short-term top and, slowly but surely, we’ve seen bitcoin walk down from that range over the last few weeks. The SEC Binance and Coinbase news sent bitcoin to its first test of the 200 WMA and the short-term holder realized price of $26,300. So far, bitcoin is holding at these levels. We still see these as key momentum levels in the market to watch. Last week was the 7th consecutive week of fund outflows for bitcoin and the GBTC discount fell back below 40%. After stronger gold correlations over the last 60 days, those have started to wane over the last month. There’s been an interesting divergence between bitcoin and equities so far this year, but it seems that bitcoin has been leading the moves in the market rather than following. Global central bank assets are in deeper contraction this week, while overall signs of economic data continue to deteriorate. A key economic release today for U.S. initial jobless claims were much higher than expectations as we’re seeing signs of increased unemployment taking shape. Equity and bitcoin volatility is at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen in some time, but don’t expect that to last for long. We still anticipate that the bearish signals are more important to pay attention to in the short term.
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Steady lads
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