Staying in a narrow range for over a month now, bitcoin’s bullish momentum has seemed to fade, but we’ve yet to see spot selling strong enough to take the price below the $26,000 level. This is a major support area for both the 200-WMA and the short-term holder realized price. Price sustaining above or below short-term realized holder price has been a reliable 3-6 month trend indicator over the last few years. We look to be at another pivotal area for defining a new trend and we will be releasing a more detailed article with backtesting on this tomorrow. For other economic data, global central bank balance sheets continue their decline this week while global M2 money supply, U.S. net liquidity and U.S. dollar strength were all slightly higher this week. The latest U.S. ISM PMI data shows further economic contraction and a significant falloff in prices for the manufacturing sector. Fund flows were negative for the sixth consecutive week and the perps funding rate has been overextended to the long side over the last few days. The recent retest and bounce from just below $26,000 did not come with the same over-shorting and negative positioning in the perps funding rate that we saw when bitcoin rebounded from $20,000. As for correlations, bitcoin and gold correlations have cooled over the last 30 days while bitcoin high-yield corporate debt (HYG) correlations are rising. We’ve seen bitcoin become less correlated with tech in the Nvidia rally led by the AI craze and we are not expecting bitcoin to follow those moves. It will be key to see how bitcoin responds to the $26,000 level in the coming days or weeks that will define the next few months of price action.
We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.
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PRO Market & Mining Dashboards: 6/1/2023
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Market Dashboard
Market Summary
Staying in a narrow range for over a month now, bitcoin’s bullish momentum has seemed to fade, but we’ve yet to see spot selling strong enough to take the price below the $26,000 level. This is a major support area for both the 200-WMA and the short-term holder realized price. Price sustaining above or below short-term realized holder price has been a reliable 3-6 month trend indicator over the last few years. We look to be at another pivotal area for defining a new trend and we will be releasing a more detailed article with backtesting on this tomorrow. For other economic data, global central bank balance sheets continue their decline this week while global M2 money supply, U.S. net liquidity and U.S. dollar strength were all slightly higher this week. The latest U.S. ISM PMI data shows further economic contraction and a significant falloff in prices for the manufacturing sector. Fund flows were negative for the sixth consecutive week and the perps funding rate has been overextended to the long side over the last few days. The recent retest and bounce from just below $26,000 did not come with the same over-shorting and negative positioning in the perps funding rate that we saw when bitcoin rebounded from $20,000. As for correlations, bitcoin and gold correlations have cooled over the last 30 days while bitcoin high-yield corporate debt (HYG) correlations are rising. We’ve seen bitcoin become less correlated with tech in the Nvidia rally led by the AI craze and we are not expecting bitcoin to follow those moves. It will be key to see how bitcoin responds to the $26,000 level in the coming days or weeks that will define the next few months of price action.
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We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.
Not financial advice.