Market Summary This week, bitcoin has continued its rally alongside other risk-on assets to over $30,000 as it’s back to testing price levels just before the previous Three Arrows Capital liquidation in June 2022. The next point of interest to the upside is just above $32,500. The rally comes alongside SPX over 4,100, a weakening DXY and much lower period of traditional implied volatility via the VIX. Markets seem to be chomping at the bit and are forward looking towards a potential Federal Reserve pause, pivot rally. Global M2 is now positive year-over-year alongside smaller year-over-year contractions in Global Central Bank Assets and U.S. Net Liquidity. Historically, knowing that risk asset performance is worse after rate cycle pauses and subsequent rate cuts, that still gives us pause and concern that this very well could be a local top area for bitcoin over the next few months. A 25 basis point hike still looks likely for May whereas there is a higher probability of a pause in June. Inflation data this week showed the first major signs of disinflationary pressures taking over. Fund flows grew last week to $55 million, the GBTC discount remains around 38-40%, and the realized price still sits just below $20,000. There’s been a rise in bullish sentiment in the derivates market across open interest, slightly higher perpetual funding rate and a higher futures annualized rolling basis.
Our short-term and medium term (3-6 months) remains cautious, due to macro factors and extremely slim liquidity in the bitcoin market currently. Yet, our long-term outlook for bitcoin is as strong as ever, with recent risk-adjusted performance putting it back on the radar of macro risk managers everywhere.
We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.
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PRO Market & Mining Dashboards 4/13/2023
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Market Dashboard
Market Summary
This week, bitcoin has continued its rally alongside other risk-on assets to over $30,000 as it’s back to testing price levels just before the previous Three Arrows Capital liquidation in June 2022. The next point of interest to the upside is just above $32,500. The rally comes alongside SPX over 4,100, a weakening DXY and much lower period of traditional implied volatility via the VIX. Markets seem to be chomping at the bit and are forward looking towards a potential Federal Reserve pause, pivot rally. Global M2 is now positive year-over-year alongside smaller year-over-year contractions in Global Central Bank Assets and U.S. Net Liquidity. Historically, knowing that risk asset performance is worse after rate cycle pauses and subsequent rate cuts, that still gives us pause and concern that this very well could be a local top area for bitcoin over the next few months. A 25 basis point hike still looks likely for May whereas there is a higher probability of a pause in June. Inflation data this week showed the first major signs of disinflationary pressures taking over. Fund flows grew last week to $55 million, the GBTC discount remains around 38-40%, and the realized price still sits just below $20,000. There’s been a rise in bullish sentiment in the derivates market across open interest, slightly higher perpetual funding rate and a higher futures annualized rolling basis.
Our short-term and medium term (3-6 months) remains cautious, due to macro factors and extremely slim liquidity in the bitcoin market currently. Yet, our long-term outlook for bitcoin is as strong as ever, with recent risk-adjusted performance putting it back on the radar of macro risk managers everywhere.
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We will send an updated password for the live dashboards every Thursday along with the Market snapshot and summary. The live dashboards are currently optimized for desktop. Viewing on mobile may not be ideal at this time.