Relevant Past Articles: BM Pro Market Dashboard Release! On-Chain Data Shows 'Potential Bottom' For Bitcoin But Macro Headwinds Remain The Everything Bubble: Markets At A Crossroads Not Your Average Recession: Unwinding The Largest Financial Bubble In History
Doesn’t this article contradict the last article on 27 Jan which started that sellers were exhausted, and the metrics were showing that the bottom is in? In the above article it now says that Bitcoin will go lower in the short term, and there is a deep recession expected for the end of the year. Aren’t the articles contradicting each other?
Great question. I think this paragraph from the last article helps sum up the uncertainty: "A major tail risk is a possible market-wide selloff in risk assets that are currently pricing a 'soft landing' style scenario along with the potentially incorrect expectations of a Federal Reserve policy pivot in the second half of this year. Many economic indicators and data still point to the likelihood that we’re in the midst of a bear market similar to 2000-2002 or 2007-2008 and the worst has yet to unfold. This secular bear market is what’s different about this bitcoin cycle compared to any other in the past and what makes it that much harder to use historical bitcoin cycles after 2012 as perfect analogues for today."
To me, the last article was bullish on the signs that a bitcoin-native capitulation event has already taken place, while also being clear in warning about a massive risk-off event in legacy markets as the only thing that might change long-term holder accumulation dynamics.
Doesn’t this article contradict the last article on 27 Jan which started that sellers were exhausted, and the metrics were showing that the bottom is in? In the above article it now says that Bitcoin will go lower in the short term, and there is a deep recession expected for the end of the year. Aren’t the articles contradicting each other?
Great question. I think this paragraph from the last article helps sum up the uncertainty: "A major tail risk is a possible market-wide selloff in risk assets that are currently pricing a 'soft landing' style scenario along with the potentially incorrect expectations of a Federal Reserve policy pivot in the second half of this year. Many economic indicators and data still point to the likelihood that we’re in the midst of a bear market similar to 2000-2002 or 2007-2008 and the worst has yet to unfold. This secular bear market is what’s different about this bitcoin cycle compared to any other in the past and what makes it that much harder to use historical bitcoin cycles after 2012 as perfect analogues for today."
To me, the last article was bullish on the signs that a bitcoin-native capitulation event has already taken place, while also being clear in warning about a massive risk-off event in legacy markets as the only thing that might change long-term holder accumulation dynamics.