The Daily Dive #016 - Price Consolidation Continues

Over the recent six weeks, bitcoin has been heavily consolidating in the $30,000-$40,000 level. Many have been left to ask: Is bitcoin in a bull market, a bear market, or neither?

The truth is: somewhat all three? Bitcoin is in a secular bull market, with entire countries adopting the asset, and with Wall Street and institutional money slowly but surely getting involved. However, from the traditional view, the price of bitcoin is currently down 47% from the all-time high. To the legacy crowd, this is considered a bear market.

But, bitcoin isn’t the S&P 500, and does not trade like it either. The notoriously volatile asset has throughout its history seen large pullbacks during periods of explosive growth and adoption, and this should be thought of in a similar light.

It is noteworthy that the three largest days of trading volume have all occurred at the $30,000 support level, as shown by the circles in the chart below.

The recent consolidation period can be seen not only on the chart, with clear support and resistance at the $30,000 and $40,000 levels respectively, but also in the on-chain volume.

Currently, 16.79% of the circulating bitcoin supply has traded hands in between these levels. Over 3,000,000 bitcoin have traded hands in this range, showing that there is strong demand from convicted investors with a developed thesis to acquire the monetary asset at a 50% discount from it's all-time high.

Additionally, BTC one-month implied volatility continues to fall, currently at 86.6%, as traders/investors wait for the impending breakout from the trading range.  

Although one cannot be certain, when a breakout comes, it seems extremely likely to come on the upside, as strong-handed hodlers have once again begun to aggressively accumulate.