Strategy ($MSTR) Hits a 52-Week Low Where’s the Bottom?
From Treasury Titan to Distress Sale? MSTR Down 53% in a Year Amid Extreme Fear
What’s Happening
Price Action
Bitcoin has tumbled hard this week, particularly over the past few days, dropping more than 12%. BTC has now dropped below $80,000 and is trying to stabilize at $76,988.
Figure 1: BTC has tumbled this past week.
The result of this drop means that BTC is now down 19.7% over the past year, having experienced a real rollercoaster of volatility in both directions.
Figure 2: BTC past 12 months’ performance.
This volatility, combined with the latest downward price pressure, has many market participants fearing that BTC may need to head lower. As a result, the Fear & Greed Index continues to sit deep into the Extreme Fear Territory. Currently, it has a score of just 14.
Figure 3: Fear & Greed Index stuck in Extreme Fear.
The Big Story: Strategy ($MSTR) Hits a 52-Week Low Where’s the Bottom?
Shares of Strategy Inc have fallen to a new 52-week low of $149, capping off a severe drawdown for the market’s largest Bitcoin treasury company.
Over the past 12 months, $MSTR is down 53%. Volatility remains extreme, reflected in a five-year beta of 3.43, well above the broader equity market.
Despite the sell-off, some analysts argue the stock is now trading at distressed levels. Current price targets range widely, from $213 at the low end to as high as $705, highlighting just how polarized sentiment remains. With earnings due shortly and a headline P/E ratio around 5.4, investors are watching closely for any signal that downside pressure may be easing.
Key Technical Levels
We highlighted last year that Strategy stock began to struggle after losing its 200-day moving average, a level that had previously acted as reliable support during bull market pullbacks.
A failed retest of the 200 DMA in October 2025 marked a turning point. From there, $MSTR rolled over decisively and broke below its 1-year moving average, also known as the 52-week MA. Since losing that longer-term trend level, the stock has fallen by a further 50% as market sentiment turned sharply against Bitcoin treasury companies, with Strategy firmly in the crosshairs as the category leader.
Figure 4: Strategy key technical levels
Looking ahead, many bears are now eyeing the 200-week moving average, which sits just below current prices at approximately $112. Historically, this level has acted as a final line of defense during deep cyclical drawdowns.
Bitcoin Treasury Position Still the Market Leader
Despite the equity drawdown, Strategy remains the largest Bitcoin holder among publicly listed companies, with its treasury position still unmatched in scale.
Figure 5: Treasury Tracker.
From a Bitcoin profitability perspective, the company is now hovering close to break-even. Strategy’s aggregate Bitcoin cost basis sits around $54.1 billion, while its real-time treasury valuation is approximately $56.1 billion. This leaves the company with a modest unrealized profit of roughly $2 billion.
Figure 6: Strategy Real-Time Treasury P&L
This proximity to break-even helps explain the current tension in the stock. Bulls see limited downside if Bitcoin stabilizes or rebounds, while bears argue that any further weakness in BTC could quickly push Strategy back into unrealized losses, intensifying pressure on the equity.
The Setup From Here
If Bitcoin can find a durable bottom and broader risk sentiment improves, $MSTR is positioned for a sharp reflexive bounce, given how far it has already fallen relative to its long-term trend levels.
However, until momentum decisively shifts, Strategy remains a high beta proxy for Bitcoin itself, amplified on both the upside and the downside. For now, attention remains focused on key long-term moving averages and whether the market is willing to reprice Bitcoin treasury exposure back into favor.
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The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.
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UBS Group has increased its holdings in (MSTR) by 3.23 million shares, bringing its total stake to 5.76 million shares, valued at $805 million.