Paradox in Economic Headwinds: Recession or Inflation
Yields and oil continue to rise signaling higher inflation, yet these things fall in recessions
If Recession, Then Not Inflation
Last week, I wrote about the Fed Funds Futures curve, concluding rate cuts will likely start in the middle of next year, giving bitcoin plenty of room to rally through the halving season. That analysis is based on the high probability that a recession is coming, which does not match with the common belief that inflation is heating back up. Today, I want to discuss a couple common paradoxes to clear up that disconnect.
US 10-Year Treasury is Blowing Up
The rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield has been awe-inspiring, breaking to 16-year highs. To many people, this is a harbinger of a monetary doomsday feedback loop.