Market Dashboard Summary 12/12/2023

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Dec 12, 2023

Market Summary

Last week, we tempered our bullishness with “the immediate move may be getting overheated,” due to on-chain metrics flashing Neutral. Price did continue higher through the rest of the week, but ran out of gas on Sunday. This week, there are no metrics signaling trend change, however, there are still some signs we are in the middle of a slow down. It should prove to be temporary since the overall environment is still very bullish.

On-chain metrics are useful because they can help us estimate where we are in the cycle. The Realized HODL Ratio has increased into Neutral which can happen if price is temporarily overheated. It doesn’t signal a top until it is full Bear. The same goes for the MVRV ratio. When that is rising, market value is outpacing realized value. These aren’t flashing red, but their rapid increase has slowed, telling us that momentum in the move is waning. The STH LTH Cost Basis Ratio is Neutral, but the rate of change is more negative this week, showing that long-term holders are distributing coins. Again, not full Bear but signifying temporary overheated conditions

Price metrics are still all increasing with support at the 50-day ($37,633) and several others in the low-$30,000’s. Fund Flows have dried up almost completely, from $300 million two weeks ago, to $132 million last week, to only $19 million this week. Bitcoin is becoming increasingly indirectly correlated to gold, stocks and bonds, and more directly correlated to the dollar.