Market Dashboard Summary 1/16/2024
Our Market Dashboard allows you to see beyond the ETF mania and concentrate on the Bitcoin network’s internals, fundamentals, and cycle timing. On-chain metrics moved significantly bullish, although still technically Neutral. Realized HODL Ratio — used to time market tops — reset more bullish, from 2,600 last week to 2,046, indicating we hit a mid-cycle swing top (not an end-cycle top) with the ETF launches. The same goes for MVRV Z-score, Reserve Risk, and the Puell Multiple from the Mining section. Hash Rate has continued to increase steadily and Hash Price has improved for miners over the last 30 days.
Derivatives show a more rational Perps Funding Rate than last week. Futures Annualized Rolling Basis — the difference between the quarterly futures and spot — came down slightly, but still indicates fundamental bullishness from traders. Options 25 Skew flipped positive from negative signaling a flip from overall pessimism to optimism. All significant moving averages are increasing with the 50 DMA above $40,000 support and the STH Realized price, guarding weak hands if we test that support.
Global Central Bank Assets continue to fall due to Quantitative Tightening (QT), but that might end in the next couple of months. Global M2 is still increasing, but at a less rapid rate. VIX has come back down near its lows.
We added a new metric to replace the GBTC discount/premium. That is the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI). It hit a major high on December 27 but has dropped 40% since.
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Thanks to all the readers! Would love some feedback on the metrics included. Is there something you would add or want to see?