Market Dashboard Summary
ETF approval is the main story driving short-term price action, however, our Dashboard gives a deep view of Bitcoin’s internals, fundamentals, and cycle timing. Metrics remain in a bullish trend with a couple mixed signals consistent with a maturing early-phase of a bull market.
On-chain metrics like Realized HODL Ratio and MVRV remain on the bullish end of Neutral, but preceding as expected for this stage of the cycle. Coin Days Destroyed and STH LTH Cost Basis are proxies for distribution versus accumulation. They, too, are consistent with an early-phase of a bull market. Price metrics remain bullish. The 50 DMA is now above the round number of $40,000. Importantly, the 50 DMA is above the STH Realized price, guarding relatively weak hands if we test support. Derivatives are mixed. Perps Funding Rate is misleading because it is based on the unusual day yesterday on January 8 where funding briefly spiked. Futures Annualized Rolling Basis is the difference between the quarterly futures and spot — a continued rise indicates significant bullishness. Options 25 Skew is less negative (more optimistic).
Macro metrics signaling recession, which is mildly bullish for bitcoin. Fund Flows accelerated to positive $113 million to start the year, making 14 of the last 15 weeks positive. 90-day correlations are neutral — consistent with bitcoin’s investment thesis of the benefits of being an uncorrelated asset — but on a 30-day basis, correlation with stocks and bonds is slightly positive.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
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