Is Strategy (MSTR) Setting Up for a Rebound?
Bitcoin Sideways Grind Meets MSTR Momentum: $20B unrealized gains fuel treasury giant's recovery play, while global adoption whispers from Germany and fast food chains.
What’s Happening
Price Action
Over the past week, BTC has dropped back down to the 200-day moving average and is currently resting right above that key support level. It is down -3.35% over the past week.
Figure 1: BTC price has drifted down over the past week.
It continues to oscillate between the 200DMA and the 128DMA.
Figure 2: BTC reclaiming the 128-day moving average.
Over the past three months, BTC has done little more than fluctuate sideways. Price has moved just 3% over those past 3 months as shown on the chart below. This price action has been testing the patience of many market participants and is likely causing problems for retail traders who have been attempting to leverage long breakouts.
Figure 3: BTC choppy price action over the past 3 months.
BTC still remains well above the 1-year moving average ($102,000), see figure 2, which remains the line in the sand for the bull market. Should we lose that level, then the bull market would most likely be over.
For now, we continue to hold the 200-day moving average, which is well above the 1yr moving average. The upside target remains a breakout above the 128-day moving average ($114,500) and maintaining a hold above it. That’s what the bulls are looking for.
The Big Story: Is Strategy (MSTR) Setting Up for a Rebound?
Strategy Inc. (MSTR) remains the undisputed leader among public companies holding bitcoin, with 640,808 BTC on its balance sheet, far ahead of any peer. As the chart below shows, no other company comes close.
Figure 4: Top Treasury Company Holdings over time.
Those holdings, acquired at an average cost near $74,000 per BTC, now represent a substantial unrealized gain with Bitcoin trading above $107,000. Strategy’s profit on their bitcoin is currently over $20B.
Figure 5: Strategy sitting on a +$20B bitcoin paper profit.
Strategy’s position has effectively transformed its balance sheet into a high-beta Bitcoin ETF, one that has also just been recognized for eligibility to join the S&P 500, marking an important milestone for corporate Bitcoin adoption.
Operationally, Strategy reported another strong quarter, posting $2.78 billion in net income versus a $340 million loss a year earlier. The company continues to expand its treasury strategy, adding coins and maintaining disciplined financing that keeps its leverage profile in check.
Yet despite those tailwinds, the share price has come under heavy pressure. MSTR has fallen sharply in recent weeks, underperforming Bitcoin as market participants question the broader category of treasury companies following the influx of new participants into the market. The stock has now dropped below its one-year moving average, a level that often defines long-term trend direction.
Figure 6: MSTR now sitting just below its 1yr moving average.
This is a key inflection point. If price can stabilise above that support and Bitcoin continues to grind higher, MSTR could quickly regain momentum. But failure to reclaim the moving average would signal a deeper consolidation phase ahead. Making this a moment to stay alert and watch closely.
You can view the Strategy dashboard for free here.
To check out more Bitcoin metrics like the ones in this newsletter and receive alerts for key Bitcoin charts so you stay ahead of the crowd, subscribe here.
The Bitcoin Magazine Team.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.
We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.
Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:
Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.
Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.
Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.
Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment.
The $20B unrealized gain really puts the scale of MSTR's strategy into perspective. The fact that they're now elegible for S&P 500 inclusion while sitting at the 1yr MA creates an interesting setup. If Bitcoin holds above the 200DMA and continues grinding higher, MSTR could bounce fast from this level.
The S&P 500 eligibility timing couldn't be more interesting with price sitting at this 1yr MA support. That $20B unrealized gain cushion gives them plenty of room to keep accumulating if Bitcoin stabilizes here. The 640k+ BTC treasury poistion is basically a leveraged bet that could snap back hard once we reclaim the 128DMA.