Global Election Season Puts Bitcoin on the Ballot
EU Parliament elections kick off wave of elections in Bitcoin-using countries. Britain and the US may radically change their Bitcoin policies in the coming months.
With the European Union’s elections wrapped up and the British and American ones set to follow in the coming months, Bitcoiners worldwide are looking to the ballot box as increasing numbers of candidates make pledges to support Bitcoin.
The most recent round of EU elections took place on June 9th, and it was identified from early on as a possible hinge point for Bitcoin’s immediate political future in the Union. The EU has been planning to implement its comprehensive legal framework for Bitcoin and the Markets in Cryptoassets (MiCA) bill sometime this year, and a drastically altered European Parliament could have dramatic implications on MiCA’s outcome. Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, told the press that “the upcoming elections are crucial for the implementation of the MiCA regulation,” adding that “the outcome of the elections will determine the pace and enthusiasm with which these regulations are implemented.”
In other words, even if some of the terms of MiCA are reasonably set in stone at this early date, an anti-Bitcoin Parliament could nevertheless carry out any number of actions to hamper its final stages. Moving towards the election, few of the leading parties had taken a firm stance in support of Bitcoin. Elections on June 9th were carried out simultaneously in all member states of the European Union, and none of the constituent nations saw their own governments change as a result. The results were something of a mixed bag for Bitcoin’s political prospects, as both pro and anti-Bitcoin coalitions saw unexpected success. For example, the biggest single loser held prominent crypto sympathies, but a greater number of winners held more moderate pro-crypto positions. If nothing else, MiCA’s key architects all managed to hold on, keeping the legislation’s future apparently on track.
As far as Bitcoiners are concerned, the EU elections are not proving to be significant in offering a dramatic change to the status quo. Instead, it’s reminding the community that election season is beginning for a variety of nations closely entangled with Bitcoin’s international commerce, particularly the US and Britain. The current British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has previously made it his policy to foster a “crypto hub” in the United Kingdom, albeit while causing certain frustrations in the community. However, Sunak has called for an election to take place on July 4th, and polls show him very likely to lose.
The likely end of Sunak’s Tory government has left British Bitcoiners wondering what the best path forward could be. As of yet, the Labour Party under Keir Starmer, the current leader in the polls, has made rather vague statements on what their Bitcoin-related policies will be. A mention of “embracing securities tokenization and a central bank digital currency” in campaign documents is the most direct reference to anything even adjacent to the world of crypto, but these vague statements offer practically no guarantees of support or friendliness. Additionally, the House of Commons will be in recess for the election, so even the most favorable outcome possible is still likely to cause significant delays to any legislation.
Still, even though this sudden election for the United Kingdom could lead to several concerning outcomes for Bitcoin legislation, there are also points of hope. Former UKIP leader and fringe candidate Nigel Farage has made pro-crypto legislation an important part of his campaign. Having directly praised Bitcoin itself on several occasions in recent years, Farage could prove a useful ally in future legislation. Farage is currently campaigning on the ticket of Reform UK after leaving his previous affiliation, and his party has shot up dramatically in recent days. Currently trailing behind the Tories by less than 10%, an over-performing Farage could end up providing an important voice for Bitcoin in upcoming legislation.
Still, although Britain’s elections are getting some extra attention because they will happen in less than a month, the biggest potential source of change in 2024 is far and away the US elections. A controversial Senate bill to drastically reduce Bitcoin’s anonymity has been proposed in the name of supporting US sanctions, and Bitcoiners have been scrambling to meet the challenge. The nation’s political organs have an immense ability to transform Bitcoin’s entire ecosystem, as shown by this year’s ETF approval, and this proposed legislation has been a reminder that election results could seriously hamper Bitcoin. Already, analysts have been warning Bitcoin’s supporters that a muddled or haphazard approach to this problem could produce dire results.
In light of these and other developments, the presidential election set to take place in November has taken on a new significance for Bitcoiners. President Biden made headlines in late May with his veto of a widely supported bill to roll back institutional custody limitations, and this has suddenly put a spotlight on the two candidates’ Bitcoin policies. Standard Chartered made the bombshell prediction that Bitcoin would hit $150k if former President and convicted felon Donald Trump ended up winning the election, and Trump, for his part, has been leaning into the buzz. Calling himself “the crypto president” at recent fundraisers, Trump has been gaining institutional support among the Bitcoin community as Biden’s apparent intransigence has begun alienating prominent figures.
Biden’s particular stubbornness on this issue could prove very costly for his support from Bitcoiners. Already the oldest-ever President, Biden will be 82 by Inauguration Day, and mounting concerns about his outright senility have impacted practically every issue he touches. Billionaire investor and Bitcoin supporter Mark Cuban even outright speculated that the decrepit Biden has taken his policy cues from his friendship and loyalty with SEC Chair Gary Gensler, infamous among Bitcoiners for his campaign of opposition to the ETF. Cuban, in his own words, has “said many times that Biden has to choose between Gensler or crypto voters, or it could cost him the White House," insinuating that Biden’s veto was largely powered by this personal relationship. Cuban even claimed that neither candidate “understands anything about crypto," but Biden’s perception as an enemy of Bitcoin could nevertheless seriously hurt him.
Still, the election is several months away. A variety of Democratic insiders are persistently ringing alarm bells that the entire organization shouldn’t take its cues from Gensler or Elizabeth Warren, as evidenced in part by the large number of Democrats that vocally supported the vetoed bill. New York Magazine quoted an anonymous insider as saying that “the tenor of their [the Democrats’] conversation changed, from ‘Guys, you really should pay attention to this’ to ‘Oh my God, we’re going to lose’”. The source added that “you’re not going to pick up any new votes for being against crypto.”.
Ultimately, there is still time for both American parties to significantly amend and clarify their official positions on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. In fact, both candidates have very credible reasons to leave the race before November, whether due to legal difficulties or failing health. The best possible outcome would be for the next election to take the same course as South Korea’s, where both major parties ended up making pro-Bitcoin promises by the final stages. In any event, for right now, it’s important to make our own voices heard, regardless of national origin. Bitcoin is a global movement that’s been gaining traction on every continent, and its voice is growing more powerful and accepted by the day. No one should promise to fight against Bitcoin as a way to gain popularity in this environment. Regardless of the best or worst outcomes, Bitcoin will remain a dynamic and durable force. All we need to do is make sure the best outcomes are the ones that come to pass.
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