Double Dashboards

A look at the Market and Mining Dashboards.

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Dec 27, 2023

Market Dashboard

Our “slowdown” is now three weeks old with price barely moving from $42,679 to $42,529. It would be consistent with the numbers, end of year timing, and ETF timing for this to be the last week of this consolidation.

On-chain metrics are mixed. MVRV is marginally more bullish yet still Neutral, while Realized HODL Ratio is slightly more bearish on a week-to-week timeframe. We continue to see what we would expect for consolidation in a rising pattern, a very mild distribution via the STH LTH Cost Basis Ratio along with a mild rise in the Percent Supply in Profit.

Price metrics remain quite bullish. Daily moving averages are all rising rapidly, providing exceptional support under $40,000. Importantly, the 50 DMA is above the STH Realized price, guarding relatively weak hands. Derivatives, such as the Perps Funding Rate did shift slightly bearish, but historically this does not preclude continuation in a trend, being more relevant at extremes. Futures Annualized Rolling Basis is the difference between the quarterly futures and spot, rising throughout the month, showing fundamental rising bullishness. Options 25 Skew also became less negative, while IOW became more optimistic.

Macro metrics are tame, with Central Bank Assets rising, along with US Net Liquidity. VIX has finally ticked Bear this week but remains historically low. Our Fund Flows source had no update this week. We estimate an improvement this week, but will wait for more data to update. GBTC discount has been decreasing rapidly, as low as 4% intraday. That is a signal that the GBTC to ETF conversion is getting increasingly likely.

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Mining Dashboard

The mining sector is being positively affected by high fees and we are seeing a massive stock market performance for public miners. Over the last 30 days, the average return on a mining stock was 148%. With no Mining Dashboard last week, this summary will combine the last two weeks.

Miner 30-day Revenue rose to $1.46 billion, up from $1.34 billion last week, and $1.15 billion 30 days ago. Half of this increase is coming directly from fees, totalling $292 million in the last 30 days, compared to $232 million just last week, and $136 million 30 days ago. The other half is coming from price appreciation and slightly faster block times.

Miners’ Wallet Balance remained relatively unchanged, up only 38 BTC week-over-week (WoW), but is still down 0.8% on a 30-day rolling basis. The Puell Multiple ticked lower WoW to 1.43, but continues to rise on the 30-day basis, showing that the daily issuance value compared to 365-day average is still pointing bullish. The Puell will rise throughout the bull market, with natural ups and downs, demarcating a bull market progression somewhere around 4.

The Mempool increased to 386 MB from 366 MB last week, and 346 MB the week prior to that. High-priority Fees have skyrocketed to $11.48 at time of writing from $7.19 last week, but vary widely throughout the week. We expect fees to peak soon and start to come down temporarily. Lastly, Inscriptions have cooled slightly this week, down to 281,594 from 302,509 last week, but remain in a notable two week spike. Nearly all Inscriptions are paying greater than 100 sats/vByte.