Bitcoin’s Biggest Players Aren’t Capitulating - They’re Buying
ETF holders, treasury companies, and miners are showing resilience as Bitcoin’s structural buyers quietly accumulate during the drawdown.
Let’s jump straight into it this week, because there’s quite a bit to get through and most of it is actually encouraging, which makes a change given the past few months. The question I want to address is whether institutions, ETF holders, and miners have behaved as you’d expect after Bitcoin dropped more than 50% from its highs.
ETF Data
When you look at ETF Cumulative Flows in USD terms, the numbers have come off a bit, from around $64 billion down to roughly $55–56 billion. That sounds meaningful until you remember that a significant portion of that decline is just the underlying price of Bitcoin moving lower, not actual outflows. The more honest way to look at it is in BTC terms.
Figure 1: ETF Cumulative Flows in BTC.
In Bitcoin, cumulative net inflows peaked at around 768,000 BTC and recently bottomed out at around 669,000, a decline of just under 13%. Think about that for a second. Bitcoin dropped 50%, and just a little over 10% of ETF-held Bitcoin actually left those products. Compare that to short-term holders, where tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin were changing hands at the first sign of a drawdown, and the contrast is stark.
I want to be careful not to overclaim here; not every ETF buyer is an institutional participant, and estimates suggest that somewhere around 30% fall into that category. But the behaviour of the broader holder base tells you something. These aren’t people who came in for a quick trade. A lot of them appear to have a genuine long-term view on Bitcoin, or at least a clear understanding of the risk profile they signed up for.
Looking at more recent ETF Daily Flows data, as Bitcoin has started recovering toward the $70,000 range, we’ve actually seen multiple consecutive days of strong inflows. The dip buyers are back, and they’re not shy about it.
Figure 2: ETF Daily Flows using a 28-day average.
Treasury Companies
There’s been a fair amount of noise over the past few weeks about Bitcoin Treasury Companies; the suggestion being that with their stock prices down sharply, they’d start capitulating and liquidating holdings to stay afloat. That hasn’t really materialised. Strategy has continued to accumulate. Marathon Digital has been adding. Across the board, we’re not seeing significant outflows or any meaningful wave of distressed selling. These are companies sitting on large quantities of Bitcoin that many assumed would become a source of sell pressure the moment conditions deteriorated, but they’ve largely stayed put.
Figure 3: Despite falling stock prices, the majority of the top public treasury companies have either retained or expanded their BTC holdings.
What Miners Are Telling Us
Beyond ETFs and institutional players, miners are one of the more underappreciated signals in this market. They’re highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s price given the operational costs involved, and they tend to sell consistently to cover those costs. So when they start holding, or when hashrate starts recovering, it’s worth paying attention.
Figure 4: A recent signal from the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Indicator.
The Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Indicator, which tracks the relationship between the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, briefly gave a minor capitulation signal as the price dropped. That’s normal; some miners become unprofitable and temporarily reduce operations. But what we’ve seen more recently is the hashrate recovering rapidly, with the shorter-term average crossing back above the longer-term one. Historically, that crossover has been one of the more reliable long-term buy signals Bitcoin has produced.
Production Costs
One more piece of the picture that I think is particularly compelling right now: Bitcoin’s electrical production cost, the raw cost in electricity to mine a single Bitcoin, excluding hardware, has historically served as a fundamental valuation floor. Every time Bitcoin has traded at or below this level throughout its history, it has represented an exceptional accumulation opportunity. We saw it during the FTX collapse in 2022. We saw it during the choppy consolidation of 2024, where every brief dip beneath this level was quickly bought up.
Figure 5: BTC price crossing below its corresponding electrical production cost.
Bitcoin recently dipped beneath that electrical production cost again, and almost immediately bounced back toward $70,000. That doesn’t guarantee the bottom is in; the hashrate could roll over further, and the production cost could drift lower, as it did in the extended 2022 bear cycle. But buying an asset for less than it costs to produce it is about as close to a fundamental definition of value as you’re likely to find in this market.
Putting This All Together
A lot of pieces are starting to align here. Retail capitulation, which we covered in the last Members Newsletter, checked out. Institutional behaviour, as reflected in the ETF and treasury company data, has remained remarkably composed. Miners are recovering their confidence. And Bitcoin briefly traded below its production cost.
None of this is a guarantee of anything. There are still scenarios where further downside is possible, and this cycle has already thrown many of these our way. But when you stack these signals together, the risk-reward for accumulation at these levels is starting to look more compelling than it has in quite some time. Institutions clearly think so too, as they’ve been buying while most of the rest of the market has been running in the opposite direction.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Institutions Aren’t Capitulating On BTC (They’re Buying)
Matt Crosby
Director of Research & Analytics
Bitcoin Magazine Pro
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.
We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.
Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:
Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.
Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.
Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.
Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Acheter un actif en dessous de son coût de production. En dehors de Bitcoin, ce type d'opportunité existe rarement aussi clairement, et ça les institutionnelles le savent très bien