Bitcoin Yearly Performance
Why Bitcoin missed the Santa rally—and why the bigger trend still matters
What’s Happening
Price Action
Bitcoin has experienced a move up over the past few hours, with price up +2.5% over the past 24hrs. The rally came from $87,500 up to $90,000.
Figure 1: BTC price climbing in recent hours.
Over the past week, BTC price dropped, chopped, and has now returned to the levels we were at a week ago.
Figure 2: BTC past week.
Zooming out, though, we see that the support level we have been monitoring continues to hold. Price is now rallying up and away from it, which is encouraging for the bulls. Though the main target of the 1-year moving average at $100,000 is still the key level to overcome.
Figure 3: Price attempting to pull away from support.
The Big Story: Yearly Performance, Looking to 2026
Bitcoin’s 2025 performance has been mixed and ultimately muted. There was no parabolic run, and even though BTC spent much of the year trading above $100k, it’s now back near $90k after a crash toward $80k.
The rollercoaster is clear to see on the past‑12‑months chart.
Figure 4: Past 12 months
With only a few days left in the year, BTC remains marginally in the red for 2025, down only -6% from the start of the year.
Figure 4: Monthly returns heatmap
That heatmap also tells the story: the parabolic 4th‑year run many expect in a cycle did not materialize this year.
At Bitcoin Magazine Pro we called this early once we saw that BTC had dropped below the 1-year moving average and other key metrics when price was still above +$100,000.
What could happen in 2026?
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Wishing you a great start to 2026!
The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Excellent year-end wrap that captures why 2025 was so tricky to navigate. The early callout about BTC dropping below the 1-year MA even while trading above $100k was prescient and probably saved alot of peopel from holding through that drawdown. From trading adjacent to this space, I've seen how easy it is to get caught up in cycle narratives insteadof watching the actual on-chain signals. The heatmap tells a story most analysis skip.