Bitcoin Faces Key Breakout Test As Saylor Doubles Down
Bitcoin nears a key bull market pivot as BTC battles the 200DMA and Strategy expands its bitcoin treasury beyond 818K BTC.
Bringing you everything you need to know about Bitcoin for the week.
What’s Happening
Price Action
Bitcoin continues grinding higher from the Q1 lows, but price is now approaching one of the most important technical levels of the year. The past week has seen a gain of +3%.
Figure 1: BTC price action over the past week.
That gain is slower than in recent weeks, as it has now encountered an important resistance level.
BTC has now tested the 200-day moving average twice in the past few days. So far, it has struggled to break above that key technical level. The last time that BTC touched the 200-day moving average, the price was over $100,000.
Figure 2: BTC is currently stuck at its 200-day moving average.
Should BTC be able to break above its 200DMA, the next major target is the 1-year moving average at $95,000. That is a critical level, as it has historically served as a bull/bear market pivot line for Bitcoin.
Whenever BTC price has broken above the 1-year moving average, it has rallied to new bull market highs. The only exception throughout Bitcoin’s history has been the brief few weeks of the COVID crash. As shown on this chart:
Figure 3: Bitcoin’s 1-year moving average.
That 1-year moving average level is still some distance from the current price.
So all eyes this week will be on whether BTC can initially break above the 200-day moving average, which is currently at $82,600.
You can track the Bitcoin 200-day moving average for free here.
Saylor clarifies that Strategy will buy more BTC than they sell
Last week, markets reacted strongly after Strategy suggested it may periodically sell small amounts of bitcoin to fund dividends tied to its STRC preferred stock product. For many Bitcoin investors, it was the first time the company had openly discussed selling BTC at all.
But Michael Saylor has now moved to calm those fears.
In a recent interview, Saylor clarified that Strategy has no intention of becoming a net seller of Bitcoin, arguing that any BTC sold should ultimately be replenished with even larger purchases. He explained that the company expects to buy “10 to 20 BTC for every 1 BTC sold,” meaning overall holdings should continue rising over time.
The logic behind the strategy is relatively straightforward. Strategy raises capital through products like STRC, deploys that capital into Bitcoin, and may occasionally monetize a small portion of gains to service dividends. According to Saylor, the model only works if Bitcoin continues compounding faster than the associated financing costs.
Importantly, Strategy’s accumulation trend remains firmly intact.
Figure 1: Strategy - Bitcoin Holdings Over Time
The company now holds 818,334 BTC, maintaining its position as the world’s largest public bitcoin treasury.
Figure 2: The HODLboard
What stands out most is that despite occasional market concerns around leverage, dilution, or dividend obligations, Strategy continues to aggressively accumulate BTC during both strong and weak market conditions. This is shown in the chart below, with the now-famous orange dots marking each time Strategy purchases more bitcoin.
Figure 3: Strategy - Acquisitions
In summary, this latest clarification from Saylor highlights that Strategy may occasionally monetize Bitcoin, but it still intends to aggressively accumulate more BTC over time.
Related: STRC Explained
Treasury analytics charts: Bitcoin Treasury Analytics - Strategy Charts
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