Bitcoin Bottom Forming? Miner Capitulation Reaches Historic Levels
Bitcoin is holding the historic 200-week moving average as miner capitulation reaches levels seen near previous market bottoms.
What’s Happening
Latest Price Action
Bitcoin has been broadly flat over the past week, with price currently sitting close to where it began.
Figure 1: BTC past week price action.
The same is true over the past month, with BTC down just -1.28%. After weeks of sharp moves lower, price is now grinding sideways around one of the most important long-term support levels in Bitcoin’s history.
Figure 2: BTC past month price action.
This type of price action is not unusual in the later stages of a bear market. Performance becomes poor, volatility fades, and investors lose interest. Apathy rises precisely at the point where long-term risk reward can become most attractive.
That is why we believe this broad area remains a strong dollar cost averaging zone for long-term investors. As highlighted by Bitcoin Magazine Pro founder Philip Swift, BTC is currently trading around the 200 week moving average, a level that has historically marked excellent accumulation opportunities across Bitcoin’s previous cycles.
BTC is currently sitting right on that 200WMA. In our view, that is too important to ignore.
Figure 3: Q3 Bitcoin Market Map, showing BTC trading in the great DCA area around the 200WMA.
Given we believe this broad region could mark the early stages of Bitcoin’s next major cycle, we are currently running a limited-time New Bull Market Sale. You can get 40% OFF your Bitcoin Magazine Pro subscription and lock in access before we roll out a major wave of new features in the coming weeks.
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Miners Are in Pain: A Bottoming Signal?
While AI continues to attract capital and attention, Bitcoin miners are facing one of the most challenging periods of this cycle. In recent months, some miners have shifted power capacity toward AI and high-performance computing, and part of the reason is simple: mining BTC has become far tougher.
Miner revenue has been under structural pressure for years, with each halving reducing block subsidy income. At the same time, transaction fees remain a relatively small share of total revenue, as many investors continue to buy and hold rather than frequently move funds on-chain.
Figure 4: Bitcoin miner revenue over time.
Miner difficulty has also started trending lower in recent months, which suggests hash rate has been leaving the network as the bear market has taken hold.
Figure 5: Bitcoin mining difficulty.
This is partly because price weakness has pushed BTC below estimated network-wide production cost, roughly $84,000 to $87,000. For higher-cost miners, that can make some rigs unprofitable to run. When hash rate leaves the network, Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment responds mechanically, lowering difficulty so that block times remain close to 10 minutes.
The bigger picture is that miners are clearly feeling the squeeze, at a level comparable with prior bear market lows. This is also visible in the Puell Multiple, which compares the daily value of newly mined BTC with its 365-day moving average. Low readings show miner revenue stress and have often appeared near major market bottoms.
Figure 6: Puell Multiple showing miner revenue stress near historically important lows.
The key question now is whether this extreme pressure on miners is signalling that Bitcoin is close to a bottom, or that the bottom has already been made.
Whether this phase is late bear or early new bull market, current pricing on Bitcoin Magazine Pro may not last long. Our New Bull Market Sale is live now, with 40% OFF for a limited time.
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The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team
Bitcoin Magazine Pro
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.